Bitcoin Logo / Source: Adobe
Bitcoin (BTC) just punched through $38,000 to hit new highs for the year, with a near-term retest of $40,000 looking increasingly likely.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation was last trading around $37,800 and with gains of around 1.5% on the day.
Despite the absence of most US market participants given the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, trading volumes are still elevated at over $21.5 billion so far for the session, above Monday’s $20.8 billion and Thursday’s $14.2 billion, as per Yahoo data.
The Bitcoin bulls have regained control of the market following a turbulent week that saw the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance settle dual lawsuits with the US Department of Justice (DoJ) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by paying fines in excess of $7 billion, with ex-CEO Changpeng Zhao also being forced to step down and plead guilty to one offence (he may face a year in jail).
By the end of the trading week, analysts had largely agreed that Binance’s settlement removes systemic risk (i.e. the risk of the exchanges collapse) from the crypto market and should also boost the odds of near-term spot Bitcoin ETF approvals from the SEC, which could explain BTC’s breakout to fresh highs for the year.
Where Next for Bitcoin (BTC)?
Bitcoin’s latest push higher has seen it tease a breakout to the north of an ascending triangle structure it has been forming over the last few weeks.
These structures are characterized by an asset price consistently finding resistance at the same level ($38,000 in Bitcoin’s case), but price lows consistently getting higher, as bulls buy the dip with increasing enthusiasm.
Technicians often view the formation of such a structure as a bullish indicator that buying pressure is building up, and a bullish breakout is coming.
Bitcoin’s latest push above $38,000, whilst short-lived, could be a sign that a more convincing push towards $40,000 and break above this ascending triangle pattern is soon coming.
Bitcoin (BTC) Chart / Source: TradingView
While Bitcoin did reach as high as the $38,400s earlier in the session, it remains too early to say the breakout is confirmed, given the quick dip back to the upper $37,000s.
Indeed, any bullish breakout for Bitcoin would need “approval” from US market participants who are largely absent on Friday.
Traders should closely monitor trading conditions on Monday when US markets reopen and the world’s largest liquidity source returns – a pump back above $38,000 amid high trading volumes would suggest US investors are aggressively buying into the bullish BTC story.
Traders should be aware that Bitcoin price risks remain very much titled to the upside – Binance’s settlement removes systemic market risk, spot Bitcoin ETF approvals seem close, the Bitcoin halving in 2024 will soon reduce monthly sell pressure from miners and macro conditions have been trending in a bullish direction for Bitcoin recently, as US stocks rise and US bond yields dive on bets the Fed will start cutting rates in 2024.
That’s a lot of potential bullish narratives that could support the BTC price going into December, which is historically a strong month for Bitcoin anyway.
If everything plays out well (i.e. macro conditions keep improving and spot ETF approvals come in), a push towards 2022’s highs in the $48,000 region seems likely by early 2024.
Bitcoin (BTC) Chart / Source: TradingView
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